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Zack Childress-Baldwin County Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2011
Year end Summary:
The above chart illustrates, 2011 was a very substantial improvement over 2010. New Home sales were off due to lack of supply and the heavy competition with the used market. Prices remain under pressure.
Monthly Results:
Dollar sales this month decreased 2% to $57,553,203 from November´s $58,582,263. This is 15% below December last year at $67,350,226. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales flattened out once again. Inventories have been coming down quite dramatically. Unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is starting to reverse, with more high end homes selling. Still, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while.
On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 8% to 297 this month vs. 322 last month, which is 9% down from last year´s 325.
Used Home sales declined 10% to 272 this month vs. 303 last month, which is down 8% from last year´s 296 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 19 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.
New listings for New homes decreased to 34 from 57 in November. Used houses New listings decreased to 422 from 512 in November with net inventory down.
The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of `09, has once again been improving. In December, there were 3,461 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,004 in November. The New home market, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 317.
The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for December vs. 14 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for December vs. 12 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in December 2008 to 10 months this December.
Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $192,034 from $219,064 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $193,943 from $179,604 in November.
Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 186 this month vs. 174 last month. Days On Market for Used was 169 this month vs. 190 last month.
While we have developed some interesting projections for the Real Estate Market in the Statewide, Birmingham and Huntsville markets, the numerous events on the coast such as the oil spill and several tropical storms, make the methods we used in the other markets unsuitable for the coast.
TWB 1/15/2012
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